 
|
The Summing-Up: The Careers of Women Tennis Players
Navigation
Mean ages at which a number of events in players’ careers occurred, over the course of the period studied here. All of these series are calculated only for successful players—defined here as all those ever ranked in the top 20. The first series shows that there has been little change over time in the mean age at which successful players first become nationally ranked: this mean was between 17 and 18 in four of six periods, and ranged only from a minimum of 17.1 to a maximum of 19.1.
There was somewhat more variation in the mean age at which women reached their personal best ranking. This mean rose by more than three years during the 1970s then fell by more than two during the early ’80s. These two changes may reflect two effects discussed earlier, with the prolonged careers of many top players produced by the advent of prize money delaying the rise of younger players during the ’70s, and the arrival of the greater number of very talented players in the tennis boom cohort resulting in earlier peak ages in the early ’80s. The mean age at which women last achieved their best ranking closely mirrors the mean age at which they first achieved that rank, as the two series are always less than one year apart. Together the two series clearly imply that throughout the period analyzed, successful women players were typically at their competitive peak between the ages of 19 and 23.
The greatest changes over time in the timing of any of these career events appear in the mean age at retirement. From mean ages under 24 during the 1960s, this age rose to 27 during the late ’70s and early ’80s, and remained over 25 in the late ’80s. The delayed retirement age resulted in substantially longer competitive careers, as the mean number of years in which successful players had been ranked at the time they retired rose from less than six years during the ’60s and early ’70s to nearly nine during the late ’70s and ’80s. Thus successful players who retired during the late ’70s and ’80s had been ranked on average twice as long as their predecessors who left competitive tennis in the early ’60s. This increase is almost certainly the result of the professionalization of women’s tennis, as the possibility of-earning a living playing tennis has induced more women to compete considerably longer during the past 20 years.
Recent years have seen women tennis players mature earlier, or reach their competitive peak earlier, than in the past. Thus the mean age of successful players at the time they were first ranked was no different during the 1980s than during the late ’60s and early ’70s. Similarly, the mean age at which successful players first reached their peak ranking, or at which they last held that ranking, has changed little over the course of the past three decades, and was no lower during the ’80s than at many times in the ’60s and ’70s. And what is certainly most notable about the evidence is that successful women players typically remained active in competition for substantially longer periods during the 15 years after 1975 than during the 15 years before that date.
The Young and the Old
The two preceding sections have clearly demonstrated that American women tennis players have not typically become younger in recent years. Yet in both sections the analysis has been based on averages. The possibility might remain that although the average age of women players has not declined over time, there have been increasing numbers of very young players, but that their presence is masked in averages by the presence of more old players: thus perhaps the central tendency of the age distribution has not declined, but only because there are not only more players in the distribution’s left tail, but also in its right tail.
The number of teenagers in the top 20, as great as 14 in 1960, and 10 or more in six years during the ’60s, has never been above eight since 1970, and has not been above six in any year since 1984. In 1993, there were only three teen-agers in the top 20; the number had only been lower twice since 1960. Nor have recent years been notable for the number of very young players. In 1960, 10 of the top 20 were below the age of 18, and there were six or more players under 18 in the top 20 three more times during the ’60s. In contrast, there have never been more than five players under 18 in the top 20 in any year since 1970, and there have not been as many as four in any of the last four years.
Top 20 players over 30, a rarity during the amateur era, have become more common in the era of Open tennis. Players over 30 appeared in the top 20 in only three years during the ’60s but there has been at least one woman over 30 in the top 20 in all but two years since 1973, and there have been two or more in 11 of the last 20 years. And while only two different women achieved top 20 rankings past the age of 30 during the ’60s, there were six in the ’70s, six in the ’80s, and there have already been five in the first three years of the ’90s. There are also likely to be considerably more in the remaining years of this decade, for five women ranked in the top 20 in 1992 were 28 or 29.
Conclusion
In 1989, Peter Alfano contended that whereas in the past “most [tennis] players could not expect to win a major tournament until they were at least old enough to vote . . . That has changed dramatically during the 1980s.” In Alfano’s view, new racket designs, more opportunities for children to play, and better training techniques had caused players both to mature and to peak earlier in the past: “Tennis now has almost as many teen-age idols as the rock music world. The sport has spawned a never-ending succession of prodigies.”
Supposedly, the impact of the changes was even greater for women’s tennis than for men’s: “teen-agers don’t fare as well among the men because they tend to mature physically at a later age than women.” Furthermore, not only did Alfano argue that “the primary age of a tennis pro is being lowered,” but he concluded “that trend . . . will probably continue.”
This study of the careers of competitive American women players during the past three decades has provided little support for Alfano’s analysis and even less for his prediction. Although the early 1980s did see a decline in the mean age of the best American women, by the time Alfano wrote mean ages were generally high: for example, in 1989 the top five American women had an average age of 26.8 years, the highest level of any of the 33 years covered by this study. Nor have women’s mean ages generally declined in the time since Alfano’s prediction: indeed, the mean age of all nationally ranked American women in 1992 was higher than in any other year during 1960-92, and probably the highest in the history of American tennis.
The belief of Alfano and others that the timing of women tennis players’ careers has changed is a generalization drawn from the experience of a small number of recent stars, These include Tracy Austin, who was first ranked in the world’s top 10 in 1978 at 16, Andrea Jaeger, who was ranked in the top 10 in 1980 at 15, Steffi Graf, ranked in the top 10 in 1985 at 16. Gabriela Sabatini, ranked in the top 10 in 1986 at 16, Monica Seles, ranked in the top 10 in 1989 at 16, and Jennifer Capriati, who entered the top 10 in 1990 at 14.
Yet the evidence of this paper indicates that generalization from their experience to the careers of all women players is not appropriate: although the very youngest women players in recent years have been younger than in the past, the ages at which women players typically enter and leave adult competition have not declined over time.
As has been the case for men’s tennis, the most important long-run demographic change in women’s tennis during recent decades has been an increase in the mean ages of competitive players, with lengthening careers that have clearly been produced by the prize money of Open tennis. Occasional players of exceptional ability at extremely young ages have long been a striking feature of women’s tennis, but at least insofar as American players are concerned, Peter Alfano’s 1989 declaration that “Youth Rule in Tennis” appears greatly exaggerated.
 Next Page: More Articles on Tennis |
RSS Feed XML Sitemap HTML Sitemap Privacy Policy
